项目承担：北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司

监测对象：18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织企业

1YUE，FANGZHIXINGYEXUQIUCHIXUWANGSHENG，CHENGPINXIAOSHOUSHUNCHANG，FANGZHIQIYEDUIMIANHUAYUANLIAOCAIGOUBUKUREQINGJIAOGAO，GUONEIMIANHUAJIAGEYANXUSHANGZHANG，DANZHANGFUJIAOSHANGYUEYOUSUOSHOUZHAI，CHENGPINSHAXIANYIJIZHANJIAOHEHUAXIANDENGCHANPINJIAGEYEJUNYOUBUTONGCHENGDUSHANGZHANG。TONGQI，GUOJIMIANJIAZHENDANGSHANGZHANG，QIJIANSHOUDAOMEIGUOJINZHIJINKOUXINJIANGMIANXIAOXIDEYINGXIANG，ZHANGFUDIYUGUONEI，YUEMONEIWAIMIANXIANHUOJIACHAXIAOFUKUODA。

一、国内外现货价格变化情况

1、国内现货价格保持上涨                      

1YUE，CHUNJIEQIANZUIHOUYIGEYUE，GUONEIXINMIANSHOUGOUYIJIJIAGONGGONGZUOCHIXUJINXING，SHICHANGMIANHUAZIYUANLIANGCHONGYU。FANGZHIXINGYEGOUXIAOJIAOWEIHUORE，XIAYOUDINGDANZENGJIA，DUIPIMIANXIANHUOJIJICAIGOU。YUENEI，GUONEIMIANHUAXIANHUOJIAGEJIXUSHANGZHANG，DANZHANGFUJIAOSHANGYUEJIANHUAN。YUEMO，ZHONGGUOMIANHUAJIAGEZHISHU（CCIndex3128B）WEI15243YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOSHANGZHANG280YUAN，TONGBISHANGZHANG1410YUAN；YUEJUNJIAWEI15277YUAN/DUN，HUANBISHANGZHANG484YUAN，TONGBISHANGZHANG1450YUAN。

2、长绒棉价格上涨

1YUE，FANGZHIXINGYEDUIYUZHANGRONGMIANMIANXUQIUZHUANHAO，ZHANGRONGMIANXIAOSHOULIANGDAFUZENGJIA，JIAGESHANGZHANG。YUEMO137JICHENGJIAOJIA21500YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUESHANGZHANG200YUAN，GAOYUTONGQIZHONGGUOMIANHUAJIAGEZHISHU（CCIndex3128B）6257YUAN，JIACHAJIAOQIANYIYUEMOSUOXIAO90YUAN。

3、国际棉价震荡上行 

1YUEQUANQIUYIMIAOJIEZHONGCHIXUJINXING，GUOJIMIANHUAJIAGEYUECHUJIYUEZHONGZHENDANGSHANGXING，YUEMOXIAOFUHUILUO，ZHENGTIJIAOSHANGYUESHANGZHANG。ZHONGGUOJINKOUMIANJIAGEZHISHUFC Index MYUEJUNWEI88.6MEIFEN/BANG，HUANBIZHANG5.6MEIFEN。YUEMOWEI87.41MEIFEN/BANG，GAOYUQIANYIYUEMO1.39MEIFEN/BANG，1%GUANSHUIXIAZHERENMINBI14065YUAN/DUN，DIYUTONGQIGUONEIXIANHUO1178YUAN/DUN，NEIWAIMIANJIACHAJIAOSHANGYUEMOKUODA134YUAN。

4、纺织行业下游持续好转，成品价格上涨

1YUE，FANGZHISHICHANGXIAYOUXUQIUCHIXUHAOZHUAN，DINGDANLIANGDAZENG，FANGZHICHENGPINXIAOSHOUJIALIANGQISHENG。JUTIKAN，CHUNMIANSHAKC32SHEJINGSHUJC40SYUEMOCHENGJIAOJIAWEI24080YUAN/DUNHE28580YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOFENBIESHANGZHANG380YUANHE1480YUAN；DILUNDUANXIANYUEMOWEI6150YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOSHANGZHANG300YUAN，ZHANJIAODUANXIANYUEMOWEI13500YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUESHANGZHANG2500YUAN。

二、影响国内外价格变化的要素分析

1、储备棉轮入仍未能启动

ANZHAOCHUBEIMIANLUNRUGONGGAO，2020 NIAN12YUE1HAODAO 2021NIAN3YUE31HAOQIJIAN，NEIWAIMIANJIACHADIYU800YUAN/DUNZEQIDONGLUNRU，DANBENBENYUENEIWAIMIANJIACHAZAIZUIDISHIDADAO1127YUAN/DUN，JIACHARENGGAOYU800YUAN/DUN，CHUBEIMIANLUNRURENGWEINENGQIDONG。

2、郑棉期货月末下行，注册仓单大幅增加

1YUE,ZHENGMIANQIHUOXIANZHANGHOUDIE，YUEMODIEPOWANWU，ZHULIHEYUECF105YUEMOJIESUANJIA14850YUAN/DUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMODE15085YUAN/DUNXIADIE235YUAN/DUN，DIEFU1.59%。YUEMOZHUCANGDAN16767ZHANG，ZHE67.07WANDUN，JIAOSHANGYUEMOZENGJIA13.34WANDUN，DANDAFUDIYUQUNIANTONGQI。

3、出疆棉数量略有下降

2021NIAN1YUE，CHUJIANGMIANZONGJIFAYUN40.65WANDUN，HUANBIJIANSHAO7.66WANDUN。QIZHONG，GONGLUYINQUANGUODUODITUFAXINGUANFEIYANBINGLI，BUFENDIQUDAOLUGUANKONGBIJIAOYANGE，YUNJIALVEYOUSHANGZHANG。

4、纺织行业订单需求转好  

1YUEFENFANGZHIXINGYEYANXUXIANGHAO，FANGZHISHICHANGMIANSHAXINGQINGCHIXUHUOBAO，BUDANJIAGESHANGZHANG，ERQIEXIAOSHOUSHUNCHANG，CHUNJIEQIANXIAYOUDINGDANJUNYOUDAFUZENGJIA，QIYEZAICHUNJIEQIANDAFUZENGJIAYUANLIAOKUCUN，MIANHUAJIAGEYEBAOCHIXIANGSHANGQUSHI。

5、美国对新疆棉颁布禁令

1YUE14RI，MEIGUOHAIGUANHEBIANJINGBAOHUJUBIAOSHI，MEIGUOJIANGJINZHIJINKOULAIZIZHONGGUOXINJIANGDIQUDESUOYOUMIANHUAHEFANQIECHANPIN，GAIJINLINGSHIYONGYUYONGXINJIANGZHONGZHIDEMIANHUAZHICHENGDEMIANSHA、FUZHUANGHEFANGZHIPIN。